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Voting has commenced for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, though experts suggest PVV stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock top result and formed a multi-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, PVV's support has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June over a dispute concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign focused on topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with some experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote earns a party one MP. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This significant fragmentation means that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of power. However, opponents and experts argue that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, political observers indicate that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.