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Ouch. From one perspective, Australia's long-running bid to host the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the rights to put on the world's biggest environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have attracted many thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next fall.

That's not happening. Rather, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had hoped organizing the climate carnival could help speed up Australia's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been questions that the prime minister and other senior figures truly desired the bid to be approved. His statements sent mixed messages at best. It translated to stories in the local and global press saying the administration was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the message being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. While the minister supported it, other senior members of the administration have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

DFAT, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and at times outright opposed.

There is little sign Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to look at it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the announcement on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and primary coordinator, and Australia – the climate minister – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", managing nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the countries actually turn up for – the discussions on how to collectively combat the climate crisis.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could collapse before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the multilateral work on global warming.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the international community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. The system is supposed to work by consensus. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is privately arranged to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey plainly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's host had backed the southern pitch.

However, uniquely, Turkey refused to yield. The term "disruption" has been thrown around in recent days, and not just by Australians.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to confront the oil producers that offered the Turks with some cover.

President Erdoğan is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Several nations feared a summit obstructed from the leadership if his government managed the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an unprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was necessary. International frameworks is flawed and often disconcerting to watch, but multilateral action has demonstrably made a difference in the battle with climate change. This joint approach is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Despite reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for increasing fossil fuel exports, climate activists who participate in UN conferences see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to lead negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This matters. While certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "president of negotiations", experts from research centers and veteran observers at climate talks say it is pivotal to their success.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a president directing proceedings who can listen, forge agreement and achieve an significant result. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the conference other than making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unanswered questions. For example, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at environmental summits. How, if at all, can the federal administration do to prevent a crackdown on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement appearing as the most promising opportunity possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.