Where Has the Excitement Gone? This Fall of Open-Play Goals from Open Play
A major talking point of England's top flight season so far is the decline of scoring in open play and how teams are finding goals increasingly from dead-ball situations as an alternative.
When we compare goal sources to matchday 11 last season, we see 39 fewer goals in open play and 26 more from set-plays and penalties, leading to 13 less altogether.
Considering the broader view, efforts on goal clubs are making show a staggering 370 fewer in open play than this time last time out.
And despite the big increase in set-piece goals, records show only two additional shots produced from these situations outside of penalties, demonstrating how effective sides have been at finding ways to net from dead-ball chances.
Goal Averages Reveal an Interesting Narrative
Over 300 goals recorded in 110 games to date calculates at nearly 2.75 goals per fixture, if maintained for the entire campaign could be the lowest for half a decade, from five seasons ago (2.69).
But just under 200 goals coming in open play equates to 1.78 per game and is tracking to be the lowest for since 2009-10, since 2009-10 (1.76).
That campaign is also the sole English top-flight season to witness scoring more often from dead-balls without spot-kicks than this campaign's frequency of 0.77 per game (0.79 per game).
Which Sides Account for This Change?
In terms of goals scored from open play, Wolves have recorded the most significant decline, scoring only four in 11 matches, 10 less than this point the previous campaign.
Outside of Wolverhampton, the EPL's decline in goals from open play is largely a London thing, with five out of the city's seven teams scoring five or more goals fewer from open play than the previous year.
Honestly, that's largely down to them scoring many goals at the start of the previous campaign instead of their genuine struggle to convert in open play this campaign.
Conversely Man City have experienced the biggest increase, with almost every one of the 23 they've scored this season coming in open play.
Set-Piece Success
Looking at newly promoted sides with the relegated sides they took the place of. Sunderland Sunderland have scored an additional three scores in open-play than Southampton did in matchday 11 en route to the drop last season.
Regarding scoring from set-pieces (excluding penalties), the Gunners and Chelsea have recorded the most significant jump, with each team making up for the reduction of five goals that they've netted in open play with the same number from set-pieces.
United have netted double the number scores from set-pieces as they did in the 11 games the previous campaign prior to Ruben Amorim assumed control, while the Black Cats again prove better at netting than the club they replaced they superseded.
Man City seem unaware of the trend about netting additional goals from set-plays, because they've recorded three fewer than the previous campaign, as have the Reds, even if that might be down to the change in style they have tried to implement.
Overall Patterns
Six teams – Arsenal, Chelsea, the Cottagers, the Magpies, Spurs and West Ham – have been this term's top trend-setters by scoring fewer scores from open play and increased from set-plays, while Man City represent the unique club to defy the pattern so far by performing the contrary.
It will be interesting to watch if sides carry on to depend greatly on set-pieces as matches continue or if they regain their all-round creativity and start netting more goals in open-play also.
