Why Trump Secured a Breakthrough in Gaza Yet Struggles With Putin Concerning Ukraine
Reports of an upcoming American-Russian leadership summit have been overstated, apparently.
Only a few days after President Trump announced he planned to meet Russian President Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A initial meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, too.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I don't want a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
- Trump states he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs White House without results
The frequently changing summit is just the latest development in the president's attempts to mediate an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a topic of renewed focus for the American leader after he orchestrated a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in the North African country recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"We have to get the Russian situation done," he declared.
Nonetheless, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing several years.
Reduced Influence
Per Witkoff, the key to unlocking a deal was Israel's move to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave the president leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump benefited from a history of siding with Israel dating back to his first term, including his decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the legality of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, in fact, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a position that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.
Combine Trump's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has much less leverage. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to pressure the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has warned to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could harm the global economy and intensify the conflict.
At the same time, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with the country and suspending arms shipments to the country - only to then back off in the face of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.
The president loves to tout his ability to sit down and hammer out agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the hostilities any closer to a peaceful end.
Putin may actually be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.
During the summer, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in the US state just as it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently delayed.
Recently, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader called Trump who then touted the potential meeting in Hungary.
The following day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.
The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged successfully," he said.
But the president of Ukraine subsequently commented on the timeline of developments.
"Once the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for Ukraine – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he said.
So, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially urging Zelensky to surrender the entire Donbas region – even territory Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has finally decided on advocating a truce along present frontlines – something Russia has rejected.
On the campaign trail previously, Trump promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently abandoned that pledge, admitting that ending the war is proving harder than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when both parties wants, or is able to, give up the fight.